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Shadow Inventory Hurts Housing Rebound

300px I 195 Miami eastbound Shadow Inventory Hurts Housing Rebound

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According to an analysis by Standard & Poor’s, it will take an average of 49 months to clear the nation’s supply of homes that are in some stage of foreclosure.

The 49-months forecast is up 40% from a year ago. These properties are referred to as “shadow inventory” because they ultimately will go on the market even though they’re not currently listed for sale. This shadow inventory is seen as one of the larger obstacles to a rebound in home values because lenders are likely to re-sell these properties at deep discounts.

In the Miami metro area, which has $57.8 billion worth of shadow inventory, S&P estimates it will take 60 months — five years — to work through these distressed homes. On the bright side, the 60 months is unchanged from the third quarter of 2010 and a year ago.

Miami is the only one of the top 20 metro areas surveyed that didn’t see an increase compared with the third quarter and a year ago.

 Shadow Inventory Hurts Housing Rebound

SOFLA Home Values Plunge 55% in 4 Years

946v5 max 250x250 SOFLA Home Values Plunge 55% in 4 Years

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Values of South Florida single-family homes, condominiums and co-ops have plummeted roughly 55% since 2006 and now are what they were in October 2002. To add some perspective, home values have dropped 27% in the past four years.

According to Zillow.com, home values in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties fell 15.4% from a year ago to $139,100. The percentage of single-family homes with a mortgage in South Florida that are “underwater” is holding steady: 43%, compared with 44% a year ago. The percentage of homes sold at a loss rose slightly to 47% in December from 46% a year earlier.

Despite the sober stats, there is a sliver of hope for South Florida, says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. The region’s monthly home price depreciation is getting smaller. It was at 1.1% in the fourth quarter, down from 1.8% in May 2010. Humphries also points to the continued presence of cash buyers, who “probably think that the bottom is close.”

Humphries expects a “definitive” bottom for home prices nationally by the end of this year. South Florida’s bottom will occur after that. But he can’t yet say when that will be. He concludes: “We’re not months away. It’s going to take a while.”

 SOFLA Home Values Plunge 55% in 4 Years

Broward County Braces for Fewer Vacancies & Higher Rents

250px Broward County %28Florida%29.svg Broward County Braces for Fewer Vacancies & Higher Rents
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Broward County’s apartment market will be among the nation’s best performing during 2011 –  which means, fewer places to choose from and higher rents.

This according to MPF Research who states Broward apartment vacancy will tighten by 1.6% this year, while rents will rise by about 5%. The county’s monthly apartment rent averaged $1,151 at year-end 2010.

Greg Willett, MPF’s vice president of research, stated: “Fort Lauderdale posted one of the better turnarounds in apartment occupancy seen anywhere across the country during the past year. Additional tightening seems on the way in reflection of the metro’s improving economy and minimal new supply. The upturn in occupancy should be enough to allow rents to really start to move upward.”

Palm Beach County’s rental market isn’t as strong, MPF says. Occupancy will rise 1.7 percentage points in 2011, and rents will inch up 3%.

 Broward County Braces for Fewer Vacancies & Higher Rents

Latest Foreclosure Freeze Will Not Hurt Housing Market

300px Chase al Latest Foreclosure Freeze Will Not Hurt Housing Market
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According to industry experts at this weekend’s Fort Lauderdale Foreclosure Convention, the foreclosure freezes by big lenders won’t have a dramatic effect on the South Florida housing market. They stated that inventory may be tight, but plenty of distressed homes remain for sale even as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and other institutions have pulled properties from the market during the past six weeks over concerns about paperwork errors.

Peter Zalewski, principal at CondoVultures thinks the banks likely will take the rest of the year to review filing procedures before resuming foreclosures at the beginning of 2011. He states: “Come January, they’re going to get very, very aggressive.” Even though questions have been raised about what might happen to properties that were improperly repossessed by lenders and later resold, Zalewski concluded he doesn’t envision investors losing their money. He maintains that investors and other buyers who get title insurance shouldn’t have any worries.

This past weekend at the convention, Boca Real Estate Investment Club founder David Dweck encouraged investors to be careful but insisted there is opportunity. He told them to buy inexpensive homes and hold the properties for three to five years while earning rental income. He states: “Do not get caught up in all the hype. If you overpay, you will pay later.”

 Latest Foreclosure Freeze Will Not Hurt Housing Market

Nation’s Largest Banks Hold Over 20 Billion in Foreclosures EACH

4047601378 878a0d7dd3 m Nations Largest Banks Hold Over 20 Billion in Foreclosures EACH
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According to new data released this week, the nation’s largest banks are holding enormous volumes of distressed home loans. Not only has the housing crisis left major lenders knee-deep in an ocean of non-performers, but added exposure to early delinquencies means they could sink even deeper.

According to an analysis by Weiss Ratings, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each reported more than $20 billion in single-family mortgages currently foreclosed or in the process of foreclosure as of midyear. In addition, Weiss found that for each dollar these banks held of mortgages in foreclosure, there were an additional $2 in loans in the pipeline that were 30 days or more past due.

Among all U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase has the largest volume of mortgages in foreclosure or foreclosed with $21.7 billion. On top of that, the company has $43.4 billion more in mortgages past due.

Compared to JPMorgan, Bank of America has a somewhat smaller volume of foreclosures — $20.3 billion — but it has a larger pipeline of past-due mortgages at $54.6 billion.

Wells Fargo’s foreclosures come to $20.5 billion, with $48 billion in overdue home loans.

According to Weiss, including all foreclosed and delinquent categories, Bank of America has the largest volume of bad mortgages among U.S. banks, with $74.9 billion, while Wells Fargo has the second largest with $68.6 billion.

Other banks, despite their large size, are less heavily exposed to mortgage difficulties. Citibank has $6.3 billion in foreclosures and $19.2 billion in past-due mortgages, or a total of $25.6 billion.

The volume of foreclosures and delinquencies held by other large banks, such as U.S. Bank ($9.5 billion), PNC Bank ($8.9 billion), and SunTrust ($7.3 billion) is even smaller.

Martin D. Weiss, chairman of Weiss Ratings, states: “In addition to the volume of bad mortgages, the vulnerability of each bank to the foreclosure crisis depends on the capital and loan loss reserves it has set aside to cover losses and other factors such as its earnings, liquidity, reliance on less-stable deposits, and the quality of its overall loan portfolio.”

Among banks with $1 billion or more of mortgages already foreclosed or in process of foreclosure, Weiss found that Wells Fargo has the greatest exposure to bad mortgages in proportion to its capital. For each dollar of Tier 1 Capital, the bank has 75.4 cents in bad mortgages, or a ratio of 75.4%.

The equivalent ratios for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and SunTrust are 66.8%, 66%, and 57.6%, respectively.

Weiss explained that losses on foreclosures and past-due loans will first be absorbed by the banks’ loan loss reserves, but then they may have to dip into capital. He states: “Considering that many large banks also take other kinds of risks beyond strictly home mortgages. These are very large exposures that could directly impact shareholders and even the safety of depositors.”

Reflecting both their exposure to foreclosures and the other economic factors, the JPMorgan, BofA, and Wells all merit a rating of D (“weak”) or lower from Weiss Ratings, indicating vulnerability to financial difficulties and instability if conditions continue to deteriorate.

 Nations Largest Banks Hold Over 20 Billion in Foreclosures EACH

Palm Beach & Broward Counties Have Highest Foreclosure Rates in Florida

2539334956 87cef7e457 m Palm Beach & Broward Counties Have Highest Foreclosure Rates in Florida

Sign Of The Times - Foreclosure

Florida had the nation’s third-highest state foreclosure rate for the fourth consecutive quarter.

According to RealtyTrac Inc., the Palm Beach had 18,413 homes in some stage of foreclosure during the July-to-September period, more than double the 7,810 in the same quarter a year ago. In September alone, Palm Beach County had the highest foreclosure rate in the state. Palm Beach County posted Florida’s second-highest foreclosure rate during the third quarter as judges pushed more cases through the court system. One in every 35 Palm Beach County homes received a foreclosure filing during the third quarter; only Osceola County had a higher foreclosure rate, at one in every 33 homes.

Meanwhile, Broward County recorded 20,115 foreclosure filings in the third quarter, the most of any of the state’s 67 counties, but that still was a 14% decrease from the same period of 2009. Broward had the state’s fifth-highest foreclosure rate during the quarter.

RealtyTrac figures show that fewer homeowners in Palm Beach and Broward counties received default notices in the third quarter compared with a year ago. Daren Blomquist, a spokesman RealtyTrac, said loan modifications and short sales are helping more homeowners avoid foreclosure. But he also pointed out that initial foreclosure filings may be down only because lenders are swamped and waiting longer before they send out notices. He states: “That’s where the real bottleneck is, from default to foreclosure.”

RealtyTrac measures three types of filings: default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions. If lenders can settle the paperwork issues quickly, a “temporary lull” in foreclosure activity likely will result, James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement. He states: “However, if the documentation issue cannot be quickly resolved and expands to more lenders we could see a chilling effect on the housing market.”

Sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties account for nearly a third of all transactions in South Florida and across the nation. Some analysts seem to think that if those sales are suspended indefinitely, home prices will rise.

However, Jerry Tepps, a lawyer in Plantation strongly disagrees: “But then all those foreclosures eventually will bubble back up, and there will be a tsunami of foreclosures. That will drive prices back down.”

RealtyTrac’s figures don’t reflect the foreclosure moratoriums instituted by several lenders over paperwork concerns since those freezes largely began this month.

 Palm Beach & Broward Counties Have Highest Foreclosure Rates in Florida

Foreclosures Still Dominate South Florida Home Sales

2539334956 87cef7e457 m Foreclosures Still Dominate South Florida Home Sales

While buyers are taking advantage of the bargain prices, homes in some stage of foreclosure continue to cast a long shadow over the South Florida real estate market.

Today, according to RealtyTrac, nearly 4 in 10 Broward County homes sold during the second quarter were in default, scheduled for auction or bank-owned.

From April to June, Broward’s share of homes sold in distress was 38%, well above Palm Beach County‘s 24%, which also is the national average.

Broward had 4,978 foreclosure-related sales in the second quarter. That declined slightly from the first quarter but still was the most of Florida‘s 67 counties.

Palm Beach County had 2,245 distressed sales, a 21% increase from the January-to-March period.

The federal homebuyer tax credits played a role in reducing the number of foreclosure-related sales in some markets, James J. Saccacio, chief executive of Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, said in a statement. He called that “a temporary dip” and expects the April 30 end of the tax credits to send more buyers back to distressed properties. Many people looking to qualify for the $8,000 and $6,500 tax rebates dismissed foreclosures and short sales because they wanted to complete their purchases quickly.

Broward’s average sales price of a home in the foreclosure process was $121,500, and the average discount was 18%. The average sales price in Palm Beach County was $146,625, and the average discount was 23%. The South Florida metro area, which includes Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, led all areas across the state with 11,662 foreclosure-related sales during the second quarter.

A home would not be considered in the foreclosure process if the owner was current on the mortgage payment but still trying to complete a short sale. Foreclosure-related sales made up roughly a third of all transactions across Florida during the second quarter. In 2005, foreclosures represented less than 1% of all sales nationally. Distressed homes usually are in disrepair and are priced below market value. Some prospective buyers prefer to look at homes not in foreclosure because they’re in better condition.

Douglas Rill, broker of Century 21 America’s Choice in West Palm Beach, is surprised that only 24% of the sales in Palm Beach County were foreclosure-related. He said distressed sales account for about half of his firm’s business, and he never has seen such a high percentage in his 38 years in the business. He states:  “The depth of this real estate recession is remarkable.”

Terry Story, a real estate agent for Coldwell Banker in Broward and Palm Beach counties, said many of her clients are “underwater,” owing more than the homes are worth. They’ve lost jobs or had sharp drops in income and are hoping to complete short sales and avoid foreclosure. She concludes: “I’m seeing pure, hard economic reasons why people are doing what they’re doing.”

 Foreclosures Still Dominate South Florida Home Sales

July Sales Down 12.4% From Last Month

300px US DeptOfCommerce Seal.svg July Sales Down 12.4% From Last Month
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Sales of new homes unexpectedly sank 12.4% in July from the prior month, showing continued weakness in the housing market absent government stimulus.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department said that sales of new, single-family houses in July were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000 units. That is 32.4% below the July 2009 estimate.

The government report claims that sales of previously owned homes dove in July, falling 27.2% over the prior month and igniting fresh concerns over the economic recovery.

The new-home sales numbers — registered when a consumer signs a purchase contract on a home, as opposed to existing sales numbers that are measured when a deal closes escrow — give the most current snapshot of buyer interest in the market absent the popular $8,000 federal tax credit for shoppers.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected some modest improvement after new-home sales plunged in May and then bounced back in June.

Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York brokerage Miller Tabak + Co., wrote in a research note:

“The fallout from the first-time home-buyers credit continues, but in a perverse way, this is a good thing. Investors are getting their first ‘organic’ look at the housing market in nearly one year.”

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2010 was $204,000 while the seasonally adjusted estimate of new-home inventory at the end of July was 210,000, representing a supply of 9.1 months worth of supply at the current pace.

South Florida Courts Finally Take Steps to Move Foreclosure Backlogs


mortgage rates South Florida Courts Finally Take Steps to Move Foreclosure BacklogsPalm Beach County’s courts have hired two senior judges and six case managers to help work through a foreclosure backlog of about 52,000 cases.

Their salaries are being paid with $640,000 — part of a one-time statewide allocation of $6 million to help clear an estimated backlog of 500,000 foreclosure cases in Florida. The Palm Beach County Clerk and Comptroller was given $403,000 out of a statewide allocation of $3 million.

Meanwhile, Palm Beach and Broward County courts both are beginning foreclosure mediation programs this month, under an order from Florida’s Supreme Court. The mediation programs will force lenders or loan servicers to try to work out a new deal before the lender can ask for a judgment against the homeowner.

The mediations are supposed to give owners and lenders a chance to see whether an alternative to foreclosure, such as a loan modification, deed in lieu of foreclosure or short sale, is an option. The mediation is free for borrowers, who will have to meet with a financial counselor and provide tax and paycheck stubs before the session. Borrowers also can opt out of the mediation.

Lenders are charged a fee of $750 per case, which pays for the counselor, mediator and administrative costs of the program. The fee is based on the assumption that a successful mediation can be accomplished in one two-hour session. Judges often hear from borrowers that they have been unable to reach bank representatives, that they speak with a different person every time or that their paperwork is repeatedly lost.
Lenders complain borrowers ignore them or turn in wrong or incomplete paperwork.

The mediation is supposed to streamline communication, with both lender and borrower requesting documents up front through the mediator.

Phil Gross, a principal with the Miami-based Yale Mortgage Corp. states:
“A lot of times we try to contact the borrower and they don’t want to talk to us and it’s adversarial. “But when they see a letter from a mediator, they’ll usually contact the mediator.”

Gross said about 75% of his mediation sessions are successful, usually resulting in a year of reduced mortgage payments.

The process for the mandatory program doesn’t begin until a foreclosure is filed. The mediator then contacts the borrower. A mediation session cannot be scheduled earlier than 60 days or later than 120 days after the filing.

Anthony DiMarco, executive vice president for government affairs for the Florida Bankers Association, said bankers worry that the mediation will become a way for borrowers to further stall the process.

DiMarco states:
“If we can have meaningful information exchange, then we’re all for it. If it’s just a delaying tactic, it’s not helpful.”

Palm Beach County Chief Judge Peter Blanc said moving foreclosures through the system is intended to get vacant homes back on the market and improve overall property values.

Blanc said:
“What I hear is there are homeowners and condo owners not in foreclosure who are being hurt because properties in foreclosure aren’t being maintained.”

In Palm Beach, Blanc said the new employees will increase the number of summary judgments processed from 1,000 per week to 2,000.

A motion for a summary judgment is typically filed by the lender following a homeowner’s answer to the foreclosure filing. If the owner does not object to the foreclosure, it can be a quick proceeding in favor of the bank.

Homeowner activists fear increasing the rate at which summary judgments occur is unfair to borrowers, but Blanc said the court wants to be fair while also reducing the backlog.

“We want to be efficient, but not rush,” Blanc concluded.

May Foreclosures Decline in South Florida

Foreclosures declined in May across South Florida as lenders work through a backlog of distressed properties, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

Broward had 6,719 homeowners in some stage of foreclosure last month, down 6% from April and 41% from May 2009. Still, Broward had the third-highest foreclosure rate among Florida’s 67 counties. Florida had the nation’s third-highest foreclosure rate.

Palm Beach County had 2,977 homeowners in foreclosure, a decline of 2% from April and 21% from a year earlier.

Nationwide, foreclosures fell 3% from April and increased less than 1% from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, California based tracking firm.

Some analysts say foreclosures are leveling off as lenders work with more homeowners to stay in their properties. Others insist that more foreclosures are in the pipeline, and banks are being careful not to release them to market all at once to prevent major price declines.

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