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July Sales Down 12.4% From Last Month

300px US DeptOfCommerce Seal.svg July Sales Down 12.4% From Last Month
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Sales of new homes unexpectedly sank 12.4% in July from the prior month, showing continued weakness in the housing market absent government stimulus.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department said that sales of new, single-family houses in July were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 276,000 units. That is 32.4% below the July 2009 estimate.

The government report claims that sales of previously owned homes dove in July, falling 27.2% over the prior month and igniting fresh concerns over the economic recovery.

The new-home sales numbers — registered when a consumer signs a purchase contract on a home, as opposed to existing sales numbers that are measured when a deal closes escrow — give the most current snapshot of buyer interest in the market absent the popular $8,000 federal tax credit for shoppers.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected some modest improvement after new-home sales plunged in May and then bounced back in June.

Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York brokerage Miller Tabak + Co., wrote in a research note:

“The fallout from the first-time home-buyers credit continues, but in a perverse way, this is a good thing. Investors are getting their first ‘organic’ look at the housing market in nearly one year.”

The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2010 was $204,000 while the seasonally adjusted estimate of new-home inventory at the end of July was 210,000, representing a supply of 9.1 months worth of supply at the current pace.

New Report States Shadow Inventory Variants Could Trigger Regional Price Declines

According to a new report published by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, regional variations in the shadow inventories of distressed U.S. mortgages could be an indicator of the direction home prices will take.

The company’s analysts say differences in the backlog of distressed properties point to which markets will see home prices stabilize or even increase, and where additional declines may still be in store.

The volume of troubled residential properties has been growing in nearly every U.S. state since 2005, S&P said, and borrowers nationwide are now defaulting on their mortgages faster than existing defaults are being resolved through liquidation. These trends have given rise to a large “shadow inventory” of distressed properties.

S&P estimates that the shadow inventory backing just private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) will take nearly three years to clear at the current resolution rate. The ratings agency defines shadow inventory as properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, in foreclosure, or REO, but that haven’t yet hit the market. S&P concludes that the original principal balance of this inventory overhang amounts to roughly $480 billion, or 30% of the entire private-label, non-GSE market.

Diane Westerback, a credit analyst with S&P states:
“Given this backlog, we believe that average home prices could fall again if demand doesn’t rise in step with the potential influx of supply.”
The report notes that although shadow inventories remain well above historical averages in most regions of the United States, inventory levels and trends among cities varies significantly.

Standard & Poor’s review of the 20 major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices revealed that inventories appear to be falling from recent peaks in some areas while plateauing at historical highs or continuing to rise in others.

Westerback explained:
“For instance, we estimate that the shadow inventory in the New York City metro area will take the longest to clear – at 103 months – assuming the current liquidation rates. This is almost 3.5 times our estimate for the national average, at 34 months, and far exceeds the level for the Phoenix metro area, which has a projected 16 months of inventory to clear, the lowest of the 20 MSAs.”

Standard & Poor’s analysis included all first-lien, prime, Alternative-A, and subprime mortgages that appear in non-agency RMBS transactions.
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